Kota Zamba · DRC Intelligence Brief

DRC Mining Terminal

In the first half of 2026, the DRC exported a record 1,724,217 t of copper (+4.5% year on year), while cobalt, capped by quotas, fell to 41,140 t (−6.4%).1

Data as of 26 Oct 2026. Every figure links to its source (superscript numbers). “p”: preliminary. “n.p.”: not published, never zero.

Copper exported, H1 20261,724,217 t1+4.5% year on year
Cobalt exported, H1 202641,140 t1−6.4% year on year, under quotas
Cobalt export cap, 202696,600 t2incl. 9,600 t strategic quota
Copper exported as cathode, Q1 202697.4%3of contained copper exported
Real GDP growth, 20255.7%4IMF, 2026 projection: 5.6%
Copper cathode, monthly average price12,498 USD/t5cobalt metal: 55,604 USD/t

Three takeaways

What the figures show, and what they do not yet allow us to say.

01

Copper keeps rising despite Kamoa-Kakula's decline

3.40 Mt pexported in 2025, preliminary

Exports rise from 3.10 Mt6 in 2024 to 3.40 Mt7 in 2025. Yet Kamoa-Kakula falls −11.0% to 388,838 t8, and its quarterly output drops −47.9% between Q1 and Q4 2025. National growth therefore comes from other sites, including CMOC's (543,376 t over nine months9).

The 2025 total is preliminary. A mine's output and national exports are not directly comparable: inventories, local sales and shipping lags sit in between.

02

Cobalt has become a policy instrument

96,600 texport cap for 2026

After ten months of suspension10, exports are capped for 2026, including 9,600 t of strategic quota at ARECOMS's discretion2. In the first half, 41,140 t were shipped1, or 94.6% of a half-year's base quota. Volumes unused by 30 June were transferred to the strategic quota11.

Quotas are expressed as cobalt contained in hydroxide. The ministry data warehouse's per-company quota table was empty when accessed on 26 October 2026.

03

Depending on the source, volumes differ up to fivefold

×5.5gap between sources, cobalt exported in 2025

For 2025, the ministry reports 3.40 Mt7 of copper exported, Access World shipping data 4.83 Mt12, a gap of ×1.4. For cobalt: 44,500 t against 245,700 t.

A hypothesis to monitor, not demonstrated: shipping data may count the gross weight of products (concentrates, hydroxides) rather than contained metal. To be confirmed with the CTCPM.

Exports

Volumes in tonnes of metal according to the Ministry of Mines unless stated otherwise.

Annual copper exports

Million tonnes. Hatched bar: preliminary.

202320242025preliminary
Sources 21, 6, 7

Cobalt exports, published periods

Uneven periods (year, nine months, half-year): read as a trend only. The 2025 collapse follows the suspension, then quotas.

20232024, 9 months2025preliminaryH1 2026
Sources 22, 7, 1

First half, 2026 against 2025

Each metal on its own scale.

Copper+4.5% year on year
H1 2025
1,650,189 t
H1 2026
1,724,217 t
Cobalt−6.4% year on year
H1 2025
43,930 t
H1 2026
41,140 t
Sources 1

In what form copper leaves

First quarter 2026, share of contained copper. The concentrate export ban (order of 29 June 2026) targets the small remaining share.

Cathodes: 97.4%, 696,725 t
Concentrates: 2.6%, 18,863 t of contained copper in 53,926 t gross
Sources 3, 15

Cobalt under quotas

The export regime set by ARECOMS and the decisions that shaped it.

2026 quota execution

First-half exports against the annual cap (base quota plus strategic quota).

Half-year base quota
Base quota 87,000 t
Exported H1 2026: 41,140 t
Cap 96,600 t

That is 42.6% of the annual cap and 94.6% of a half-year base quota. Monthly base quota: 7,250 t.

Sources 2, 1

Regulatory timeline

Decisions that weigh on volumes and revenues.

  • 22 Feb 2025Cobalt
    Cobalt exports suspended to support prices10
  • October 2025Cobalt
    The suspension gives way to quotas run by ARECOMS13
  • December 2025Diplomacy
    Strategic minerals partnership with the United States1
  • 19 Dec 2025Cobalt
    Cobalt exports effectively resume10
  • 31 Mar 2026Cobalt
    Quota withdrawals for non-compliance take effect14
  • April 2026Finance
    DRC's first sovereign Eurobond4
  • 29 Jun 2026Copper
    Order banning exports of copper and cobalt concentrates15
  • 30 Jun 2026Cobalt
    Unused first-half quotas transferred to the strategic quota11

Who produces

Output published by operators, in tonnes of metal. Detailed operator profiles in preparation.

OperatorMetalPeriodProductionSrc
CMOC (TFM, KFM)Copper2024
650,161 t
6
CMOC (TFM, KFM)Copper2025, 9 months
543,376 t
9
Kamoa-Kakula (Ivanhoe, Zijin, État)Copper2024
437,061 t
6
Kamoa-Kakula (Ivanhoe, Zijin, État)Copper2025
388,838 t
8
CMOC (TFM, KFM)Cobalt2024
114,165 t
16

Kamoa-Kakula quarterly output 2025: 133,120 t in Q1, 69,419 t in Q4.8

Reliability of the figures

Two serious sources, two orders of magnitude. The terminal shows the gap instead of silently choosing.

2025 exports by source

Ministry of Mines (preliminary) against Access World shipping data reported by Reuters.

Copper, 2025gap ×1.4
Ministry
3.40 Mt7
Access World
4.83 Mt12
Cobalt, 2025gap ×5.5
Ministry
44,500 t7
Access World
245,700 t12

Context

The weight of mining in the economy and the state of the mining register.

Macroeconomic indicators

Mining share of goods exports
over 95%17
International reserves, end-March 2026
8.8 bn USD18
Annual inflation, April 2026
2.5%19
Maiden Eurobond, April 2026
1.25 bn USD4
Real GDP growth 2026, projection
5.6%19

Mining register

Valid mining titles listed by the ministry data warehouse (CTCPM).

PR
2,156
PE
659
PEPM
125
PER
26

PR: Exploration permits · PE: Mining permits · PEPM: Small-scale mining · PER: Tailings permits

Published mining contracts: 518 documents (base contracts, amendments, annexes).

Sources 5

Method

Reading rules

  • Volumes in tonnes of contained metal unless stated otherwise.
  • “p”: preliminary, subject to revision. “n.p.”: not published, never zero.
  • Change: value for the period divided by the reference period, minus 1.
  • Quota execution: half-year exports divided by half the annual base quota.
  • Cathode share: copper contained in cathodes divided by total contained copper exported.
  • Gap between sources: Access World volume divided by the ministry volume.
  • When two sources disagree, the terminal shows the gap instead of silently picking one.

Updates

Weekly semi-automated review (being set up) of the Ministry of Mines data warehouse and official releases, checked by the editors before publication.

Log

  • 26 Oct 2026: First public version: exports, cobalt quotas, operators, source reliability, macroeconomic context.

Sources monitored

Congolese official sources

  • DRC Mining Data Warehouse (CTCPM): output, exports, operators, titles, contracts, beneficial owners, cobalt quotas, metal prices.
  • Ministry of Mines: annual and half-year mining statistics.
  • CAMI: mining cadastre. ARECOMS: cobalt quotas.
  • Central Bank of Congo: exports, exchange rate, reserves.
  • EITI DRC: reconciliation reports, company payments to the State.

International institutions

  • IMF: Article IV consultations, programme reviews.
  • World Bank: economic updates.
  • OECD: export restrictions on critical raw materials20, due diligence.
  • USGS, Cobalt Institute.

Operators, market, civil society

  • Company reports: CMOC, Ivanhoe Mines, Glencore, ERG, Gécamines.
  • Shipping and prices: Access World, Fastmarkets, SMM.
  • Analysis: China Global South Project, Afrewatch, IPIS, Carter Center.

Sources

Numbered in order of citation. Links to the original document or article.

  1. Ministry of Mines, H1 2026 statistical report (Reuters, via Engineering News) (16 Sep 2026)
  2. Fastmarkets, interview with the ARECOMS chair (2026-08)
  3. Reuters, official Q1 2026 data (via The EastAfrican) (2026-08)
  4. IMF, ECF and RSF reviews (via Channel Africa) (2026-06)
  5. DRC Mining Data Warehouse (CTCPM), accessed 26 October 2026 (26 Oct 2026)
  6. Ministry of Mines, 2024 statistical report (via Afrique-sur7) (2025-03)
  7. DRC government, preliminary 2025 data, Mining Indaba (Reuters, via Longbridge) (11 Feb 2026)
  8. Ivanhoe Mines, 2025 production results (15 Jan 2026)
  9. CMOC, first nine months 2025 results (via AllAfrica) (27 Oct 2025)
  10. AFP, cobalt exports resume (via Le360) (23 Dec 2025)
  11. Reuters, unused quotas (via Mining Weekly) (30 Jun 2026)
  12. Access World shipping data (Reuters, via Kitco) (14 Apr 2026)
  13. Reuters, cobalt quotas (via MarketScreener) (11 Dec 2025)
  14. Reuters, ARECOMS (via Engineering News) (31 Mar 2026)
  15. Reuters, concentrate export ban (via Engineering News) (6 Aug 2026)
  16. CMOC, 2024 production (via Mining.com) (23 Jan 2025)
  17. World Bank (via CapMad) (16 Jul 2026)
  18. IMF, press release 26/139, 2026 Article IV mission (6 May 2026)
  19. IMF, ECF and RSF reviews (via Ecofin Agency) (29 Jun 2026)
  20. OECD, Inventory of Export Restrictions on Critical Raw Materials 2026 (2026)
  21. Agence Ecofin, citing the Ministry of Mines (via Managers.tn) (14 Mar 2024)
  22. Bankable, citing the Ministry of Mines (28 Jan 2025)